Penn State vs. Boise State: 2024 Fiesta Bowl Preview & Pick

No. 6 Penn State vs No. 3 Boise State

CFP Quarterfinal
Tuesday, December 24
4:30 pm PT, ESPN

Line: Penn State –10.5
Over/Under Point Total: 52.5
Broadcast Team: Bob Wischusen, Louis Riddick, Kris Budden and Tom Luginbill

The Fiesta Bowl is a battle of strength vs. strength in the form of the Boise State rushing attack against the Penn State run defense.

The Nittany Lions are seventh in the nation against the run this season allowing just 100.4 per game. The Broncos are fifth in the nation running the ball for 250.4 yards per outing.

Stopping the run—and more specifically, Ashton Jeanty—is on the mind PSU Defensive Coordinator Tom Allen. And what Allen is losing sleep over ahead of this matchup is the broken and missed tackles caused by the Heisman runner-up.

Jeanty has already set the single-season record in the CFP era for yards after contact with 1,889 and missed tackles forced with 143 on the season. Limiting the extra yards will be a priority for the Nittany Lion defense.

Look for several players swarming to the ball when No. 2 touches it.

This could open some things up for the Broncos in the play-action. If they can get Penn State to overcommit, they might be able to cause some damage over the top.

But this is a Penn State team, especially on defense, that is playing their best football. The Nittany Lion front is fast and disciplined, so the Broncos front will have their work cut out for them.

And for what it is worth, it is not exactly like the PSU pass defense is a weak spot. The Lions rank 16th in the nation against the pass, this is a complete defensive unit.

In a perfect world, the Broncos passing offense would soften things up for the run game, but that could be difficult.

It also might not be necessary, with Jeanty’s ability to churn out yards after contact. If he can accomplish that the Broncos should be able to move the ball on offense.

When Penn State has the football, they will want to run it.

The Lions are also among the top 20 in the nation in rush yards with 201. 2 per outing. Nick Singleton has gained 928 yards in 2024, averaging 6.4 per carry, and Kaytron Allen has rushed for 892, averaging 4.8 per carry.

The Broncos have been good against the run this season, ranking 23rd in the nation in run defense allowing just 115.1 yards per game.

The big difference in this one could be Boise State’s ability to stop the Penn State passing game. Boise State has not been great against the pass this season and while it is not the first option for the Penn State offense, they certainly can make plays through the air.

And a big part of that is Ty Warren. The senior tight end is versatile and can line up in numerous spots for the Nittany Lions. Quite simply, he is a playmaker. If the Broncos can take him out of the game, PSU’s offense could be scrambling.

And that leads us to our keys in this one.

Penn State wins if…Drew Allar can take control of the game. The QB has only thrown seven interceptions all season.

Six of them have come in three games: The losses to Oregon and Ohio State and the USC game in which the Nittany Lions escaped the Coliseum with a three-point win.

Penn State will need Allar to be at his best. The Broncos are averaging 8.0 tackles for loss per game. If they can make him uncomfortable, they could slow down the Lions.

Boise State wins if…the offensive line can win the battle in the trenches. This is big in the run game, obviously, but with Jeanty’s ability to make people miss and create on his own, it is even more pivotal in the passing game.

PSU is 16th in the nation with 36 sacks this season. BSU is tied for eighth nationally allowing just 12 sacks this season. If Maddux Madsen can have time to make plays with his arm the Boise State offense should click.

My outlook: The Broncos defense has been a bit of boom or bust all season long. They can make plays and will sell out for the sack but that costs them in the passing game from time to time.

That could create some explosive plays for PSU in the passing game. The Lions passing offense has not been stellar but can connect on the big play as they have 48 explosive plays in the passing game this season, the 28th most in the nation.

And that could be the difference in this one, pushing the final total over while pressing the betting line cushion beyond the 10.5 points.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Penn State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Penn State