By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
This quarterfinal matchup should be the championship game. Oregon and Ohio State are two best teams in the nation and have been all season.
The first meeting in Eugene was a classic and we can only hope for the same in Pasadena.
One of the main reasons we are seeing this one in the quarterfinals and not a later round is because Ohio State played so poorly against Michigan in the season finale, and that’s also the reason this isn’t round three between these two teams.
Oh, how the narrative has changed since the final day of November when people questioned whether the Buckeyes would want a first-round home game. Would Ryan Day get run out of town?
The dominant performance against Tennessee has put everything to rest (at least for now).
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon
CFP Quarterfinal
Wednesday, January 1
2:00 pm PT, ESPN
Line: Ohio State –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 55.5
Broadcast Team: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe, and Stormy Buonantony
If Oregon has a weak spot this season, it is on the defensive side of the football—but the Ducks are hardly slouches when the other team has the ball.
Oregon is the only FBS team in the top 15 for scoring offense (13th), total offense (13th), scoring defense (12th) and total defense (9th). One part of the defense not in the top 15 is the rush defense.
The Ducks are 34th against the run—not bad, by any means—but they will need to be better against the OSU ground attack in this one.
A couple of fumbles did Ohio State in during the first meeting. Will Howard also came into his own in the back half of the season and is playing very good football at the moment.
Kyle McCord just finished setting ACC passing records at Syracuse, but Howard was brought in to replace him for a reason: his ability to run the ball.
Chip Kelly’s offense wants to run it and with Howard, Quinshon Judkins, and Treveyon Henderson—their three-headed monster. Henderson looked like he had fresh legs against Tennessee.
That makes this OSU offense very dangerous.
The one issue for the Buckeyes on that side of the ball is a depleted offensive line. They held up against Tennessee, but this is a key area of the game the Ducks can exploit.
Oregon’s defensive line has not been dominant this season but may need to be in this one.
In that first meeting, the Ducks put up 32 points on an OSU team that had allowed just 34 all season prior to that game. Oregon created turnovers and the offense was able to move the ball up and down the field on the Ohio State defense.
The Oregon offense has the most speed that OSU has seen all season long and that will allow the Ducks to move the football and score points once again.
In the October meeting, the Ducks gained 496 yards of total offense while Tez Johnson and Evan Stweart combined for 224 receiving yards. The Ducks can strike quickly and will need to have explosive plays in this one just as they did in that early season game.
Ohio State has had some issues getting things going early on this season. They found their footing in the second half but a fast start for an explosive Oregon offense could make it difficult for the Buckeyes to comeback.
OSU has allowed 96 first-half points this season and just 52 after halftime.
Ohio State wins if…the patchwork offensive line can keep the pocket clean for Will Howard. Oregon can create havoc in the backfield with 3.1 sacks per game. T
he Ducks will look to punish Howard every time he drops back and if they hit him enough it might take the QB run out of the equation.
Oregon wins if…they win in the trenches and can get the running game going. This is especially important on the edge. If the Ducks can get to the outside against this fast OSU front it could open things up for chunk plays in the run game.
Outlook: Both teams have a Top 10 defense, just as they did in the first meeting, when the teams combined for 963 offensive yards during the game and put up 43 points before halftime.
The 55.5 total points seem like a safe bet to go over. Much like the first meeting, this one will stay tight. I think it stays around a FG difference, so give me Oregon with the points.
—My Picks—
Against the Spread: Oregon
Point Total: Over
Outright winner: Ohio State
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
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2024-12-31 02:32:05
