By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
Bowl season is one of the best times of the year with some downtime from work for the holidays and a plethora of football each day.
Predicting the outcome of the postseason games has always been challenging, but it is even more so now with transfers and players opting out of bowl games to prepare for the NFL draft.
Nonetheless, I give you my picks here and preview the Famous Idaho Bowl between Northern Illinois and Fresno State, and the Hawai’i Bowl between South Florida and San Jose State.
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State
Monday December 23
11:30 am PT, ESPN
Line: Northern Illinois -3
Over/Under Point Total: 40.5
In September, Northern Illinois looked like they could give the MAC a shot at a playoff berth after shocking Notre Dame in South Bend.
Sadly for the Huskies, that performance was followed by consecutive losses and a 7-5 season. Now, NIU faces a member of their future conference, Fresno State of the Mountain West.
But they will not be conference opponents because the Bulldogs are off to the Pac-12. Alas, such is the state of the current college football landscape.
Fresno State is also coming off an up-and-down season at 6-6 and is ushering in the Matt Entz era. This game could provide a good stepping stone for both of these programs.
Northern Illinois wins if…Telly Johnson can continue to step up. Johnson seized the starting RB role after Antario Brown went down with an injury and Johnson performed averaging 94 yards per game in his four starts.
Johnson must perform well with the Huskies QB and WR1 in the portal.
Fresno State wins if…Joshua Wood can move the offense like Mikey Keene was able to. Keene is in the portal so the Sophomore Wood, and his five pass attempts this season, gets control of the Air Raid offense.
If Wood can step up, the Bulldogs will be in good shape. And they could have a good idea of what could be in store for 2025.
My outlook: Both defenses should limit the explosive plays and both offenses are without some key players. This one stays low scoring and—even with the very low total of 40.5—I like the under in this one.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Fresno State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Fresno State
South Florida vs San Jose State
Tuesday, December 24
5:00 pm PT, ESPN
Line: San Jose State -4.5
Over/Under Point Total: 61.5
Both teams enter this one hot.
The Bulls went 4-2 down the stretch to earn bowl eligibility. The Spartans are 13-6 in their last 19 games and have posted three straight seven-win seasons for the first time since 1982.
South Florida is bowling in consecutive seasons for the first time in the past six years.
South Florida wins if…the Bulls can limit the explosive plays. San Jose State is 15th in the nation with 70 scrimmage plays of 20+ yards. USF has allowed 66 such plays this season, the 12th most nationally. If they can prevent big plays they could have a chance.
San Jose State wins if…they stay on the good side of the turnover battle. SJSU is +6 in their seven wins this season but -6 in the turnover department in their five losses.
My outlook: South Florida’s defense is bad, and San Jose State should be able to exploit the Bulls’ deficiencies on that side of the ball. I like the Spartans to win and cover the 4.5 points easily.
The 61.5-point total is tricky. While USF has struggled to defend, that is a big number and the under has hit in five of the Spartans’ last seven.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: San Jose State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: San Jose State
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
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2024-12-22 02:41:50
