Despite the diplomatic tensions between Israel and Turkey, Turkish carriers led by Turkish Airlines are considering recommencing flights on the Tel Aviv – Istanbul route in June. Sources in the airline industry believe that Turkish Airlines will resume services on a smaller scale in June with full operations restored in October 2025.
Turkish Airlines is 49% owned by a Turkish government investment fund but is managed as a business with profitability determining business decisions. However, the government has an influence with decisions not purely economic but also political.
Until the outbreak of the war in October 2023, Turkish Airlines was one of the dominant airlines operating at Ben Gurion airport. In 2019, before the Covid pandemic, it was ranked as the fourth biggest airline at the Israeli airport in terms of operations with a 4.87% market share. Turkish Airlines maintained its position in 2023, despite ceasing operations in Israel immediately after the outbreak of the war for three months. Turkish low-cost carrier Pegasus, which is also considering a return to Israel, was ranked 12th at the time, in terms of market share.
According to industry estimates, the Tel Aviv-Istanbul route was one of Turkish Airlines most profitable, partly due to the high demand for connection flights from Istanbul. Operating costs of the flights are relatively low, and most passengers continued on connection flights to Europe, North America and Asia. In fact, the flights to Israel are not necessary for tourism to Turkey itself (the country’s tourism industry is growing even without visitors from Israel), but rather for the purpose of strengthening Turkish Airline’s international flight network.
The decision about slots is a crucial factor
The final decision on the return of Turkish Airlines to Israel is expected to be made in May, when the flight slots – the time slots for takeoffs and landings – will be reallocated. Turkish Airlines and Pegasus were supposed to decide in March, but due to the security uncertainty that still prevails in the region, they were given more time to make the decision.
An airline that uses a slot it has received with high frequency can keep it, but if it does not take advantage of it, it may be reallocated to another airline. Turkish Airlines and Pegasus, which made great efforts over the years to obtain their slots, may lose them if they continue not flying to Israel.
Industry sources say that Turkish Airlines and Pegasus understand that if they do not return to operations in Israel soon, flyDubai will take advantage of the vacated slots. Thus Turkish Airlines and Pegasus would lose convenient departure and arrival times, which would allow let rivals gain a more significant presence and maximize profits on daily flights to Israel.
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To illustrate how important slots are, during the Covid pandemic, when passenger traffic was at a low, airlines even operated almost empty flights designed to preserve their rights for the sought-after slots – there were known as “ghost flights.”
FlyDubai, which currently operates eight daily flights from Tel Aviv to Dubai, is already a rival to Turkish Airlines and Pegasus, with the ability to connect passengers to the airport in Dubai, which, like the airport in Istanbul, is a significant hub for connecting flights around the world, even if not on the same scale.
The absence of Turkish Airlines is clearly felt at Ben Gurion airport. Until the outbreak of the war, the carrier operated more than 10 daily flights on the Tel Aviv-Istanbul route, and during peak periods even 16 daily flights. In July and August 2023, more than 5% of passengers passing through Ben Gurion airport flew Turkish Airlines.
Published by Globes, Israel business news – en.globes.co.il – on February 6, 2025.
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2025-02-06 08:30:06