Trump’s transactional diplomacy is reshaping U.S.-Taiwan relations

TAIPEI, Taiwan — For decades, the U.S. has played an important role in maintaining the delicate relationship between Taiwan and China, which considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory and has vowed to pursue unification by force, if necessary. But President Trump’s “America First” ideology and use of tariffs as an economic weapon suggest the administration may be rewriting the rules of the U.S.-China-Taiwan playbook to suit his transactional style.

As is true in much of the world, long-held understandings, meant to preserve peace, are suddenly up for negotiation. Although the U.S. does not recognize Taiwan as an independent nation, it has been contractually obligated to support the island’s defense program with weapons sales for years. It’s part of an official policy known as “strategic ambiguity,” intended to deter China from launching an attack and Taiwan from formally declaring independence.

Trump has not said whether the U.S. will defend Taiwan in the future, but he has complained about the relationship, and his administration has said that Taiwan should raise its defense budget to 10% of its gross domestic product.

Trump has also criticized Taiwan’s cutting-edge semiconductor industry for “stealing” U.S. business and threatened tariffs on Taiwanese chips. Then, on March 3, he announced a $100-billion investment from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, maker of the world’s most advanced microchips, to build five new facilities in the United States. The move has some people in Taiwan wondering how much the island democracy can count on the U.S., and what the U.S. might expect in return.

Chieh-ting Yeh, director of the think tank US Taiwan Watch, said that since Trump took office, his conversations have shifted from a focus on shared values such as democracy and human rights to bargaining ability.

“Privately everybody is thinking, ‘OK, if it’s going to be a transactional type of relationship, how do we play that game?’” Yeh said. “In the short term, I just don’t think anybody can say for sure what’s going to happen.”

The news about TSMC, which has a reputation as Taiwan’s “silicon shield,” has sparked heated debate over whether the company’s plan to build in the United States could undermine national security.

Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou attacked current President William Lai for supporting the deal: “Let’s not forget, U.S. President Donald Trump is a businessman, and profit comes first to him. Is selling one TSMC enough? What else will be sold next, and what more is left to sell?” Ma wrote in a Facebook post that garnered more than 70,000 likes.

In a news conference last week with TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei, Lai denied that the investment was a result of U.S. pressure and noted that Trump had affirmed his commitment to regional stability in a joint statement with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in February.

Lai has also said Taiwan will aim to increase defense spending to 3% of GDP this year from about 2.4% the year before. While that figure falls far short of what the Trump administration has called for, experts in Taiwan said increasing the budget to 10% of GDP would be impossible.

In the meantime, Taiwan’s opposition-backed legislature wants to cut defense spending, criticizing the current administration for wasteful spending, corruption and a combative approach to China that it believes is driving the island closer to war.

“Taiwan is taking it with a grain of salt. I think there’s an understanding that nice, big, round numbers create bargaining positions, but may not be the final numbers that are agreed on,” said Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist at Australia National University who specializes in cross-strait relations.

Fears of American abandonment have been underscored by the U.S. about-face under Trump on the war in Ukraine, which Taiwan has watched closely as a barometer of U.S. reliability. “Values as well as longer-standing friendships are not by themselves sufficient safeguards for maintaining U.S. support,” Sung said.

Since taking office, Trump has called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” and suspended — and then agreed to resume — U.S. military aid to Ukraine. When a meeting between the two leaders, intended to sign a deal granting the U.S. a stake in Ukrainian minerals in exchange for continued financial support, dissolved into shouting, some in Taiwan took it as a worrisome sign.

The slogan of “Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan,” popularized by the ruling party after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, resurfaced on social media in Taiwan after the fallout. One user on Threads commented under a post about Zelensky, “Taiwan needs to follow America’s lead, since we can only rely on them for military support.” Another responded, “Haven’t you seen what happened to Ukraine? Do you still think the U.S. is reliable?”

Others have speculated that if America turns away from Ukraine and Europe, there could be more resources and willingness to support its allies in Asia and counter China: “Comparing Ukraine to Taiwan is a completely flawed analogy,” James Hsieh, a Taiwanese political commentator, wrote on social media. “Personally, I hope the Russia-Ukraine war ends quickly so that the U.S. can fully prepare for the Indo-Pacific.”

Elbridge Colby, Trump’s nominee to be undersecretary of Defense for policy, recently reiterated the call for Taiwan to increase its defense spending in a confirmation hearing. But he also said that the U.S. should focus on combating China’s growing military influence, and that losing Taiwan to China “would be a disaster for American interests.”

“What can Taiwan learn from this?” asked William Chih-tung Chung, an assistant research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research. “First, don’t clash with Trump directly. Second, delay and wait for change. In the meantime, we just have to engage with him and negotiate.”

Chung points out that this isn’t the first time Taiwan has faced losing U.S. support. In 1979, the U.S. severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan as it pursued a closer relationship with China.

But the deterioration of U.S.-China relations in the last decade has enhanced the importance of Taiwan, which he believes will continue to play an important role as a defensive stronghold in the Asia-Pacific region and a leader in chip technology, a role that cannot be erased in the next four years.

“As long as the U.S. maintains a negative stance toward China, Taiwan remains a crucial bargaining chip for the U.S.,” Chung said. “Of course there’s a lot of uncertainty with Trump, and everyone is anxiously waiting. But I think there’s no need to be overly pessimistic or overly optimistic — what matters is that we find a strong connection with the Trump administration’s global strategy.”