Trump tariffs may put a damper on prospects going forward

General Motors (GM) will report first quarter earnings before the opening bell on Tuesday morning as the biggest of the Big Three automakers grapples with President Trump’s auto tariffs. Investors are girding for GM to trim its forward guidance in light of the on-again, off-again trade war.

GM is expected to report Q1 revenue of $43.03 billion, per Bloomberg consensus, down 11% compared to a year ago. Analysts expect GM to post Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.57, with adjusted net income coming in at $2.758 billion, down a hefty 21.4% from the same time a year ago.

GM’s drop in global revenue and profit isn’t due to a lack of US sales, however. GM said Q1 US sales jumped 17% year over year to 693,363 units, powered by trucks and EVs, across the company’s four brands: Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick, and GMC.

Read more about GM’s stock moves and today’s market action.

GM said it was No. 1 in overall full-size pickup sales, including Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra models, with more than 200,00 units sold, its best first quarter since 2007. GM said full-size pickups also had their best Q1 since 2007, with models like the Tahoe, Suburban, and GMC Yukon seeing sales up 31%.

The overall industry saw a jump in sales in Q1, especially in March, as buyers tried to get ahead of Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles, which began on April 2. But this pull forward in sales, ongoing tariffs on auto imports, and new duties on auto parts that may begin on May 2 have automakers and investors worried.

Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump’s tariffs

At the end of Q4, GM projected 2025 EBIT (earnings before interest expense and taxes) coming in at a range of $13.7 billion to $15.7 billion. Diluted and adjusted EPS were seen at $11 to $12 for the year.

At the time, GM did not model the effects of potential tariffs or loss of federal EV tax credits from the Trump administration in its guidance. GM didn’t assume these policy moves would happen but would adjust based on the outcomes, GM CEO Mary Barra said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.

While GM didn’t model these scenarios in its forward guidance, it does have a “playbook” and has been preparing for various outcomes based on where Trump’s policies may go, GM CFO Paul Jacobson said in a call with reporters following Q4 results.

Analysts like Barclays’ Dan Levy believe automakers like GM and Ford will beat on results but will likely withdraw 2025 guidance due to tariff uncertainty.

And while Ford may be OK given its large US manufacturing footprint, GM will suffer due to its reliance on building cars in Canada, Mexico, and South Korea.